Tag Archives: data science

Four Fatal Flaws with In-Store Tracking

I didn’t start Digital Mortar because I was impressed with the quality of the reporting and analytics platforms in the in-store customer tracking space. I didn’t look at this industry and say to myself, “Wow – here’s a bunch of great platforms that are meeting the fundamental needs in the space at an enterprise level.” Building good analytics software is hard. And while I’ve seen great examples of SaaS analytics platforms in the digital space, solutions like Adobe and Google Analytics took many years to reach a mature and satisfying form. Ten years ago, GA was a toy and Adobe (Omniture SiteCatalyst at the time) managed to be both confusing and deeply under-powered analytically. In our previous life as consultants, we had the opportunity to use the current generation of in-store customer journey measurement tools. That hands-on experience convinced me that this data is invaluable. But it also revealed deep problems with the way in-store measurement is done.

When we started building a new SaaS in-store measurement solution here at Digital Mortar, these are the problems in the technology that we wanted to solve:

Lack of Journey Measurement

Most of today’s in-store measurement systems are setup as, in essence, fancy door counters. They start by having you draw zones in the store. Then they track how many people enter each zone and how long they spend there (dwell time).

This just sucks.

It’s like the early days of digital analytics when all of our tracking was focused on the page view. We kept counting pages and thinking it meant something. Till we finally realized that it’s customers we need to understand, not pages. With zone counting, you can’t answer the questions that matter. What did customers look at first? What else did customers look at when they shopped for something specific? Did customers interact with associates? Did those interactions drive sales? Did customer engagement in an area actually drive sales? Which parts of the store were most and least efficient? Does that efficiency vary by customer type?

If you’re not asking and answering questions about customers, you’re not doing serious measurement. Measurement that can’t track the customer journey across zones just doesn’t cut it. Which brings me to…

Lack of Segmentation

My book, Measuring the Digital World, is an extended argument for the central role of behavioral segmentation in doing customer analytics. Customer demographics and relationship variables are useful. But behavior – what customers care about right now – will nearly always be more important. If you’re trying to craft better omni-channel experiences, drive integrated marketing, or optimize associate interactions, you must focus on behavioral segmentation. The whole point of in-store customer tracking is to open up a new set of critically important customer behaviors for analysis and use. It’s all about segmentation.

Unfortunately, if you can’t track the customer journey (as per my point above), you can’t segment. It’s just that simple. When a customer is nothing more than a blip in the zone, you have no data for behavioral segmentation. Of course, even if you track the customer journey, segmentation may be deeply limited in analytic tools. You could map the improvement of Adobe or Google Analytics by charting their gradually improving segmentation capabilities. From limited filtering on pre-defined variables to more complex, query-based segmentation to the gradual incorporation of sophisticated segmentation capabilities into the analyst’s workbench.

You can have all the fancy charts and visualizations in the world, but without robust segmentation, customer analytics is crippled.

Lack of Store Context

When I introduce audiences to in-store customer tracking, I often use a slide like this:

In-store Customer Analytics

The key point is that the basic location data about the customer journey is only meaningful when its mapped to the actual store. If you don’t know WHAT’S THERE, you don’t have interesting data. The failure to incorporate “what’s there” into their reporting isn’t entirely the fault of in-store tracking software. Far too many retailers still rely on poor, paper-based planograms to track store setups. But “what’s there” needs to be a fundamental part of the collection and the reporting. If data isn’t stored, aggregated, trended and reported based on “what’s there”, it just won’t be usable. Which brings me to…

Use of Heatmaps

Heatmaps sure look cool. And, let’s face it, they are specifically designed to tackle the problem of “Store Context” I just talked about. Unfortunately, they don’t work. If you’ve ever tried to describe (or just figure out) how two heat-maps differ, you can understand the problem. Dialog like: “You can see there’s a little more yellow here and this area is a little less red after our test” isn’t going to cut it in a Board presentation. Because heat-maps are continuous, not discrete, you can’t trend them meaningfully. You can’t use them to document specific amounts of change. And you can’t use them to compare customer segments or changed journeys. In fact, as an analyst who’s tried first hand to use them, I can pretty much attest that you can’t actually use heat-maps for much of anything. They are the prettiest and most useless part of in-store customer measurement systems. If heat-maps are the tool you have to solve the problem of store context, you’re doomed.

These four problems cripple most in-store customer journey solutions. It’s incredibly difficult to do good retail analytics when you can’t measure journeys, segment customers, or map your data effectively onto the store. And the ubiquity of heat-maps just makes these problems worse.

But the problems with in-store tracking solutions don’t end here. In my next post, I’ll detail several more critical shortcomings in the way most in-store tracking solutions are designed. Shortcomings that ensure that not only can’t the analyst effectively solve real-world business problems with the tool, but that they can’t get AT THE DATA with any tools that might be able to do better!

Want to know more about how Digital Mortar can drive better store analytics? Drop me a line.

In-Store Customer Journey Tracking: Can You Really Do This?

When I describe my new company Digital Mortar to folks, the most common reaction I get is: “Can you really do this?”

Depending on their level of experience in the field, that question has one of two meetings. If they haven’t used existing in-store customer tracking solutions, the question generally means: is the technology practical and is it actually OK to use it (i.e. does it violate privacy policies)? If they have experience with existing in-store customer tracking solutions what they mean is: “does your stuff actually work as opposed to the garbage I’ve been using?”

I’m going to tackle the first question today (is the technology practical and legal) and leave the second for next time.

Is the Technology Practical?

Yes. As my post last week made clear, the various technologies for in-store customer tracking have challenges. Data quality is a real problem. There are issues with positional accuracy, visitorization, journey tracking, and even basic reliability. This is still cutting or even bleeding-edge technology. It’s like digital analytics circa 2005 not digital analytics 2017. But the technologies work. They can be deployed at scale and for a reasonable cost. The data they provide needs careful cleaning and processing. But so does almost any data set. If chosen appropriately and implemented well, the technologies provide data that is immediately valuable and can drive true continuous improvement in stores.

How Hard is it to Deploy In-Store Tracking?

Unfortunately, the in-store customer tracking technologies that don’t take at least some physical in-store installation (Wi-Fi Access Point based measurement and piggybacking off of existing security cameras) are also the least useful. Wi-Fi measurement is practical for arenas, airports, malls and other very large spaces with good Wi-Fi opt-in rates. For stores, it just doesn’t work well enough to support serious measurement. Security cameras can give you inaccurate, zone based counts and not much else.  Good in-store measurement will require you install either measurement focused cameras or passive sniffers. Of the two, sniffers are lot easier. You need a lot less of them. The placement is easier. The power and cabling requirements are lower. And they are quite a bit cheaper.

Either way, you should expect that it will take a few weeks to plan out the deployment for a new store layout. This will also involve coordination with your installation partner. Typically, the installation is done over one or two evenings. No special closing is required. With sniffers, the impact on the store environment is minimal. The devices are about the size of a deck of playing cards, can be painted to match the environment and any necessary wiring is usually hidden.

After a couple week shake down, you’ll have useable measurement and a plan you can roll out to other stores. Subsequent stores with the same or similar layout can be done as quickly as your installation partner will schedule them. And the post-install shake-down period is less.

So if you’re planning a Pilot project, here’s the timeline we use at Digital Mortar:

Month 1

  • Select Store Targets: We typically recommend 3 stores in a Pilot – one test and two control stores with similar layout and market.
  • Select Initial Store
  • Design Implementation for the Initial Store
  • Train Installation Partner
  • Do initial 1 store installation

Month 2

  • Test the initial installation and tune plan if necessary
  • Rollout to additional stores
  • Provide initial reporting
  • Targeted analysis to develop store testing plan

Month 3

  • Run initial test(s)
  • Analyze control vs. test
  • Assess findings and make optimization recommendations
  • Evaluate pilot program

This kind of Pilot timeline gets you live, production data early in Month 2 with initial store findings not long after. And it gets you real experience with the type of analysis, testing and continuous improvement cycle that make for effective business use.

Is it Ok to Use Location Analytics?

Yes. In-store tracking technology is already widely used. The majority of major retailers have tried it in various forms. There is an established community of interest focused on privacy and compliance in location analytics (the Future of Privacy Forum) that is supported by the major technology players (including giants like Cisco who do this routinely), major retailers, most of the vendors specific to the space, and plenty of heavy-hitters from a political standpoint. They’ve published guidelines (with input from the FTC) on how to do this. In many respects, the landscape is similar to digital. To do this right, you must have a documented and published privacy policy and you MUST adhere to your own privacy policy. If you offer an online opt-out, you must provide and honor an online opt-out. If you offer an in-store opt-out, you must provide it. To abide by the privacy standards, you must treat the visitor’s phone MAC address as PII information. You must not keep and match the visitor’s MAC address without opt-in and you should make sure that is hashed or transformed when stored.

And, of course, in the EU the tracking guidelines are significantly more restrictive.

In almost all respects, this is identical to the use of cookies in the digital world. And, as with the digital world, it’s not hard to see where the blurry lines are. Using in-store customer journey tracking to improve the store is non-controversial – the equivalent of using first-party cookies to analyze and improve a website. Using appropriately described opt-ins to track and market to identified customers is fine as long as the usage is appropriately disclosed. Selling customer information begins to touch on gray areas. And identifying and marketing to users without opt-in using any kind of device fingerprinting is very gray indeed.

Bottom line? In-store customer tracking and location analytics is ready for prime-time. The technologies work. They can be deployed reasonably and provide genuinely useful data. Deployment is non-trivial but is far from back-breaking. And the proper uses of the data are understood and widely accepted.

In my next post, I’ll take up the analytic problems that have crippled existing solutions and explain how we’ve solved them.

A Guided Tour through Digital Analytics (Circa 2016)

I’ve been planning my schedule for the DA Hub in late September and while I find it frustrating (so much interesting stuff!), it’s also enlightening about where digital analytics is right now and where it’s headed. Every conference is a kind of mirror to its industry, of course, but that reflection is often distorted by the needs of the conference – to focus on the cutting-edge, to sell sponsorships, to encourage product adoption, etc.  With DA Hub, the Conference agenda is set by the enterprise practitioners who are leading groups – and it’s what they want to talk about. That makes the conference agenda unusually broad and, it seems to me, uniquely reflective of the state of our industry (at least at the big enterprise level).

So here’s a guided tour of my DA Hub – including what I thought was most interesting, what I choose, and why. At the end I hope that, like Indiana Jones picking the Holy Grail from a murderers row of drinking vessels, I chose wisely.

Session 1 features conversations on Video Tracking, Data Lakes, the Lifecycle of an Analyst, Building Analytics Community, Sexy Dashboards (surely an oxymoron), Innovation, the Agile Enterprise and Personalization. Fortunately, while I’d love to join both Twitch’s June Dershewitz to talk about Data Lakes and Data Swamps or Intuit’s Dylan Lewis for When Harry (Personalization) met Sally (Experimentation), I didn’t have to agonize at all, since I’m scheduled to lead a conversation on Machine Learning in Digital Analtyics. Still, it’s an incredible set of choices and represents just how much breadth there is to digital analytics practice these days.

Session 2 doesn’t make things easier. With topics ranging across Women in Analytics, Personalization, Data Science, IoT, Data Governance, Digital Product Management, Campaign Measurement, Rolling Your Own Technology, and Voice of Customer…Dang. Women in Analytics gets knocked off my list. I’ll eliminate Campaign Measurement even though I’d love to chat with Chip Strieff from Adidas about campaign optimization. I did Tom Bett’s (Financial Times) conversation on rolling your own technology in Europe this year – so I guess I can sacrifice that. Normally I’d cross the data governance session off my list. But not only am I managing some aspects of a data governance process for a client right now, I’ve known Verizon’s Rene Villa for a long time and had some truly fantastic conversations with him. So I’m tempted. On the other hand, retail personalization is of huge interest to me. So talking over personalization with Gautam Madiman from Lowe’s would be a real treat. And did I mention that I’ve become very, very interested in certain forms of IoT tracking? Getting a chance to talk with Vivint’s Brandon Bunker around that would be pretty cool. And, of course, I’ve spent years trying to do more with VoC and hearing Abercrombie & Fitch’s story with Sasha Verbitsky would be sweet. Provisionally, I’m picking IoT. I just don’t get a chance to talk IoT very much and I can’t pass up the opportunity. But personalization might drag me back in.

In the next session I have to choose between Dashboarding (the wretched state of as opposed to the sexiness of), Data Mining Methods, Martech, Next Generation Analytics, Analytics Coaching, Measuring Content Success, Leveraging Tag Management and Using Marketing Couds for Personalization. The choice is a little easier because I did Kyle Keller’s (Vox) conversation on Dashboarding two years ago in Europe. And while that session was probably the most contentious DA Hub group I’ve ever been in (and yes, it was my fault but it was also pretty productive and interesting), I can probably move on. I’m not that involved with tag management these days – a sign that it must be mature – so that’s off my list too. I’m very intrigued by Akhil Anumolu’s (Delta Airlines) session on Can Developers be Marketers? The Emerging Role of MarTech. As a washed-up developer, I still find myself believing that developers are extraordinarily useful people and vastly under-utilized in today’s enterprise. I’m also tempted by my friend David McBride’s session on Next Generation Analytics. Not only because David is one of the most enjoyable people that I’ve ever met to talk with, but because driving analytics forward is, really, my job. But I’m probably going to go with David William’s session on Marketing Clouds. David is brilliant and ASOS is truly cutting edge (they are a giant in the UK and global in reach but not as well known here), and this also happens to be an area where I’m personally involved in steering some client projects. David’s topical focus on single-vendor stacks to deliver personalization is incredibly timely for me.

Next up we have Millennials in the Analytics Workforce, Streaming Video Metrics, Breaking the Analytics Glass Ceiling, Experimentation on Steroids, Data Journalism, Distributed Social Media Platforms, Customer Experience Management, Ethics in Analytics(!), and Customer Segmentation. There are several choices in here that I’d be pretty thrilled with: Dylan’s session on Experimentation, Chip’s session on CEM and, of course, Shari Cleary’s (Viacom) session on Segmentation. After all, segmentation is, like, my favorite thing in the world. But I’m probably going to go with Lynn Lanphier’s (Best Buy) session on Data Journalism. I have more to learn in that space, and it’s an area of analytics I’ve never felt that my practice has delivered on as well as we should.

In the last session, I could choose from more on Customer Experience Management, Driving Analytics to the C-Suite, Optimizing Analytics Career-Oaths, Creating High-Impact Analytics Programs, Building Analytics Teams, Delivering Digital Products, Calculating Analytics Impact, and Moving from Report Monkey to Analytics Advisor. But I don’t get to choose. Because this is where my second session (on driving Enterprise Digital Transformation) resides. I wrote about doing this session in the EU early this summer – it was one of the best conversations around analytics I’ve had the pleasure of being part of. I’m just hoping this session can capture some of that magic. If I didn’t have hosting duties, I think I might gravitate toward Theresa Locklear’s (NFL) conversation on Return on Analytics. When we help our clients create new analytics and digital transformation strategies, we have to help them justify what always amount to significant new expenditures. So much of analytics is exploratory and foundational, however, that we don’t always have great answers about the real return. I’d love to be able to share thoughts on how to think (and talk) about analytics ROI in a more compelling fashion.

All great stuff.

We work in such a fascinating field with so many components to it. We can specialize in data science and analytics method, take care of the fundamental challenges around building data foundations, drive customer communications and personalization, help the enterprise understand and measure it’s performance, optimize relentlessly in and across channels, or try to put all these pieces together and manage the teams and people that come with that. I love that at a Conference like the Hub I get a chance to share knowledge with (very) like-minded folks and participate in conversations where I know I’m truly expert (like segmentation or analytics transformation), areas where I’d like to do better (like Data Journalism), and areas where we’re all pushing the outside of the envelope (IoT and Machine Learning) together. Seems like a wonderful trade-off all the way around.

See you there!
See you there!



The State of the Art in Analytics – EU Style

(You spent your vacation how?)

I spent most of the last week at the fourth annual Digital Analytics Hub Conference outside London, talking analytics. And talking. And talking. And while I love talking analytics, thank heavens I had a few opportunities to get away from the sound of my own voice and enjoy the rather more pleasing absence of sounds in the English countryside.


With X Change no more, the Hub is the best conference going these days in digital analytics (full disclosure – the guys who run it are old friends of mine). It’s an immensely enjoyable opportunity to talk in-depth with serious practitioners about everything from cutting edge analytics to digital transformation to traditional digital analytics concerns around marketing analytics. Some of the biggest, best and most interesting brands in Europe were there: from digital and bricks-and-mortar behemoths to cutting-edge digital pure-plays to a pretty good sampling of the biggest consultancies in and out of the digital world.

As has been true in previous visits, I found the overall state of digital analytics in Europe to be a bit behind the U.S. – especially in terms of team-size and perhaps in data integration. But the leading companies in Europe are as good as anybody.

Here’s a sampling from my conversations:

Machine Learning

I’ve been pushing my team to grow in the machine learning space using libraries like TensorFlow to explore deep learning and see if it has potential for digital. It hasn’t been simple or easy. I’m thinking that people who talk as if you can drop a digital data set into a deep learning system and have magic happen have either:

  1. Never tried it
  2. Been trying to sell it

We’ve been having a hard time getting deep learning systems to out-perform techniques like Random Forests. We have a lot of theories about why that is, including problem selection, certain challenges with our data sets, and the ways we’ve chosen to structure our input. I had some great discussions with hardcore data scientists (and some very bright hacker analysts more in my mold) that gave me some fresh ideas. That’s lucky because I’m presenting some of this work at the upcoming eMetrics in Chicago and I want to have more impressive results to share. I’ve long insisted on the importance of structure to digital analytics and deep learning systems should be able to do a better job parsing that structure into the analysis than tools like random forests. So I’m still hopeful/semi-confident I can get better results.

In broader group discussion, one of the most controversial and interesting discussions focused on the pros-and-cons of black-box learning systems. I was a little surprised that most of the data scientist types were fairly negative on black-box techniques. I have my reservations about them and I see that organizations are often deeply distrustful of analytic results that can’t be transparently explained or which are hidden by a vendor. I get that. But opacity and performance aren’t incompatible. Just try to get an explanation of Google’s AlphaGo! If you can test a system carefully, how important is model transparency?

So what are my reservations? I’m less concerned about the black-boxness of a technique than I am its completeness. When it comes to things like recommendation engines, I think enterprise analysts should be able to consistently beat a turnkey blackbox (or not blackbox) system with appropriate local customization of the inputs and model. But I harbor no bias here. From my perspective it’s useful but not critical to understand the insides of a model provided we’ve been careful testing to make sure that it actually works!

Another huge discussion topic and one that I more in accord with was around the importance of not over-focusing on a single technique. Not only are there many varieties of machine learning – each with some advantages to specific problem types – but there are powerful analytic techniques outside the sphere of machine learning that are used in other disciplines and are completely untried in digital analytics. We have so much to learn and I only wish I had more time with a couple of the folks there to…talk!

New Technology

One of the innovations this year at the Hub was a New Technology Showcase. The showcase was kind of like spending a day with a Silicon Valley VC and getting presentations from the technology companies in their portfolio (which is a darn interesting way to spend a day). I didn’t know most of the companies that presented but there were a couple (Piwik and Snowplow) I’ve heard of. Snowplow, in particular, is a company that’s worth checking out. The Snowplow proposition is pretty simple. Digital data collection should be de-coupled from analysis. You’ve heard that before, right? It’s called Tag Management. But that’s not what Snowplow has in mind at all. They built a very sophisticated open-source data collection stack that’s highly performant and feeds directly into the cloud. The basic collection strategy is simple and modern. You send json objects that pass a schema reference along with the data. The schema references are versioned and updates are handled automatically for both backwardly compatible and incompatible updates. You can pass a full range of strongly-typed data and you can create cross-object contexts for things like visitors. Snowplow has built a whole bunch of simple templates to make it easier for folks used to traditional tagging to create the necessary calls. But you can pass anything to Snowplow – not just Web data. It’s very adaptable for mobile (far more so than traditional digital analytics systems) and really for any kind of data at all. Snowplow supports both real-time and batch – it’s a true lambda architecture. It seems to do a huge amount of the heavy lifting for you when it comes to creating a  modern cloud-based data collection system. And did I mention it’s open-source? Free is a pretty good price. If you’re looking for an independent data collection architecture and are okay with the cloud, you really should give it a look.

Cloud vs. On-Premise

DA Hub’s keynote featured a panel with analytics leaders from companies like Intel, ASOS and the Financial Times. Every participant was running analytics in the cloud (with both AWS and Azure represented though AWS had an unsurprising majority). Except for barriers around InfoSec, it’s unclear to me why ANY company wouldn’t be in the cloud for their analytics.

Rolling your own Technology

We are not sheep
We are not sheep

Here in the States, there’s been widespread adoption of open-source data technologies (Hadoop/Spark) to process and analyze digital data. But while I do see companies that have completely abandoned traditional SaaS analytics tools, it’s pretty rare. Mostly, the companies I see run both a SaaS solution to collect data and (perhaps) satisfy basic reporting needs as well as an open-source data platform. There was more interest in the people I talked to in the EU about a complete swap out including data collection and reporting. I even talked to folks who roll most of the visualization stack themselves with open-source solutions like D3. There are places where D3 is appropriate (you need complete customization of the surrounding interface, for example, or you need widespread but very inexpensive distribution), but I’m very far from convinced that rolling your own visualization solutions with open-source is the way to go. I would have said that same thing about data collection but…see above.

Digital Transformation

I had an exhilarating discussion group centered around digital transformation. There were a ton of heavy hitters in the room – huge enterprises deep into projects of digital transformation, major consultancies, and some legendary industry vets. It was one of the most enjoyable conference experiences I’ve ever had. I swear that we (most of us anyway) could have gone on another 2 hours or more – since we just scratched the surface of the problems. My plan for the session was to cover what defines excellence in digital (what do you have to be able to do digital well), then tackle how a large-enterprise that wants to transform in digital needs to organize itself. Finally, I wanted to cover the change management and process necessary to get from here to there. If you’re reading this post that should sound familiar!

It’s a long path

Well, we didn’t get to the third item and we didn’t finish the second. That’s no disgrace. These are big topics. But the discussion helped clarify my thinking – especially around organization and the very real challenges in scaling a startup model into something that works for a large enterprise. Much of the blending of teams and capabilities that I’ve been recommending in these posts on digital transformation are lessons I’ve gleaned from seeing digital pure-plays and how they work. But I’ve always been uncomfortably aware that the process of scaling into larger teams creates issues around corporate communications, reporting structures, and career paths that I’m not even close to solving. Not only did this discussion clarify and advance my thinking on the topic, I’m fairly confident that it was of equal service to everyone else. I really wish that same group could have spent the whole day together. A big THANKS to everyone there, you were fantastic!

I plan to write more on this in a subsequent post. And I may drop another post on Hub learnings after I peruse my notes. I’ve only hit on the big stuff – and there were a lot of smaller takeaways worth noting.

See you there!
See you there!

As I mentioned in my last post, the guys who run DA Hub are bringing it to Monterey, CA (first time in the U.S.) this September. Do check it out. It’s worth the trip (and the venue is  pretty special). I think I’m on the hook to reprise that session on digital transformation. And yes, that scares me…you don’t often catch lightning in a bottle twice.

Digital Transformation in the Enterprise – Creating Continuous Improvement

I’m writing this post as I fly to London for the Digital Analytics Hub. The Hub is in its fourth year now (two in Berlin and two in London) and I’ve managed to make it every time. Of course, doing these Conference/Vacations is a bit of a mixed blessing. I really enjoyed my time in Italy but that was more vacation than Conference. The Hub is more Conference than vacation – it’s filled with Europe’s top analytics practitioners in deep conversation on analytics. In fact, it’s my favorite analytics conference going right now. And here’s the good news, it’s coming to the States in September! So I have one more of these analytics vacations on my calendar and that should be the best one of all. If you’re looking for the ultimate analytics experience – an immersion in deep conversation with the some of the best analytics practitioners around – you should check it out.

I’ve got three topics I’m bringing to the Hub. Machine Learning for digital analytics, digital analytics forecasting and, of course, the topic at hand today, enterprise digital transformation.

In my last post, I described five initiatives that lay the foundation for analytics driven digital transformation. Those projects focus on data collection, journey mapping, behavioral segmentation, enterprise Voice of Customer (VoC) and unified marketing measurement. Together, these five initiatives provide a way to think about digital from a customer perspective. The data piece is focused on making sure that data collection to support personalization and segmentation is in place. The Journey mapping and the behavioral segmentation provide the customer context for every digital touchpoint – why it exists and what it’s supposed to do. The VoC system provides a window into who customers want and need and how they make decisions at every touchpoint. Finally, the marketing framework ensures that digital spend is optimized on an apples-to-apples basis and is focused on the right customers and actions to drive the business.

In a way, these projects are all designed to help the enterprise think and talk intelligently about the digital business. The data collection piece is designed to get organizations thinking about personalization cues in the digital experience. Journey mapping is designed to expand and frame customer experience and place customer thinking at the center of the digital strategy. Two-tiered segmentation serves to get people talking about digital success in terms of customer’s and their intent. Instead of asking questions like whether a Website is successful, it gets people thinking about whether the Website is successful for a certain type of customer with a specific journey intent. That’s a much better way to think. Similarly, the VoC system is all about getting people to focus on customer and to realize that analytics can serve decision-making on an ongoing basis. The marketing framework is all about making sure that campaigns and creative are measured to real business goals – set within the customer journey and the behavioral segmentation.

The foundational elements are also designed to help integrate analytics into different parts of the digital business. The data collection piece is targeted toward direct response optimization. Journey mapping is designed to help weld strategic decisions to line manager responsibilities. Behavioral segmentation is focused on line and product managers needing tactical experience optimization. VoC is targeted toward strategic thinking and decision-making, and, of course, the marketing framework is designed to support the campaign and creative teams.

If a way to think and talk intelligently about the digital enterprise and its operations is the first step, what comes next?

All five of the initiatives that I’ve slated into the next phase are about one thing – creating a discipline of continuous improvement in the enterprise. That discipline can’t be built on top of thin air – it only works if your foundation (data, metrics, framework) supports optimization. Once it does, however, the focus should be on taking advantage of that to create continuous improvement.

The first step is massive experimentation via an analytics driven testing plan. This is partly about doing lots of experiments, yes. But even more important is that the experimentation be done as part of an overall optimization plan with tests targeted by behavioral and VoC analytics to specific experiences where the opportunity for improvement is highest. If all you’re thinking about is how many experiments you run, you’re not doing it right. Every type of customer and every part of their journey should have tests targeted toward its improvement.

Similarly on the marketing side, phase II is about optimizing against the unified measurement framework with both mix and control group testing. Mix is a top-down approach that works against your overall spending – regardless of channel type or individual measurement. Control group testing is nothing more than experimentation in the marketing world. Control groups have been a key part of marketing since the early direct response days. They’re easier to implement and more accurate in establishing true lift and incrementality than mathematical attribution solutions.

The drive toward continuous improvement doesn’t end there, however. I’m a big fan for tool-based reporting as a key part of the second phase of analytics driven transformation. The idea behind tool-based reporting is simple but profound. Instead of reports as static, historical tools to describe what happened, the idea is that reports contain embedded predictive models that transform them into tools that can be used to understand the levers of the business and test what might happen based on different business strategies. Building tool-based reports for marketing, for product launch, for conversion funnels and for other key digital systems is deeply transformative. I describe this as shift in the organization from democratizing data to democratizing knowledge. Knowledge is better. But the advantages to tool-based reporting run even deeper. The models embedded in these reports are your best analytic thinking about how the business works. And guess what? They’ll be wrong a lot of the time and that’s a good thing. It’s a good thing because by making analytically thinking about how the business works explicit, you’ve created feedback mechanisms in the organization. When things don’t work out the way the model predicts, your analysts will hear about it and have to figure out why and how to do better. That drives continuous improvement in analytics.

A fourth key part of creating the agile enterprise – at least for sites without direct ecommerce – is value-based optimization. One of the great sins in digital measurement is leaving gaps in your ability to measure customers across their journey. I call this “closing measurement loops”. If you’re digital properties are lead generating or brand focused or informational or designed to drive off-channel or off-property (to Amazon or to a Call-Center), it’s much harder to measure whether or not they’re successful. You can measure proxies like content consumption or site satisfaction, but unless these proxies actually track to real outcomes, you’re just fooling yourself. This is important. To be good at digital and to use measurement effectively, every important measurement gap needs to be closed. There’s no one tool or method for closing measurement gaps, instead, a whole lot of different techniques with a bunch of sweat is required. Some of the most common methods for closing measurement gaps include re-survey, panels, device binding and dynamic 800 numbers.

Lastly, a key part of this whole phase is training the organization to think in terms of continuous improvement. That doesn’t happen magically and while all of the initiatives described here support that transformation, they aren’t, by themselves, enough. In my two posts on building analytics culture, I laid out a fairly straightforward vision of culture. The basic idea is that you build analytics culture my using data and analytics. Not by talking about how important data is or how people should behave. In the beginning was the deed.

Creating a constant cadence of analytics-based briefings and discussions forces the organization to think analytically. It forces analysts to understand the questions that are meaningful to the business. It forces decision-makers to reckon with data and lets them experience the power of being able to ask questions and get real answers. Just the imperative of having to say something interesting is good discipline for driving continuous improvement.

foundational transformation Step 2

That’s phase two of enterprise digital transformation. It’s all about baking continuous improvement into the organization and building on top of each element of the foundation the never ending process of getting better.


You might think that’s pretty much all there is to the analytics side of the digital transformation equation. Not so. In my next post, I’ll cover the next phase of analytics transformation – driving big analytics wins. So far, most of what I’ve covered is valid for any enterprise in any industry. But in the next phase, initiatives tend to be quite different depending on your industry and business model.

See you after the Hub!

Space 2.0

The New Frontier of Commercial Satellite Imagery for Business

One of my last speaking gigs of the spring season was, for me, both the least typical and one of the most interesting. Space 2.0 was a brief glimpse into a world that is both exotic and fascinating. It’s a gathering of high-tech, high-science companies driving commercialization of space.

Great stuff, but what the heck did they want with me?

Well, one of the many new frontiers in the space industry is the commercialization of geo-spatial data. For years now, the primary consumer of satellite data has been the government. But the uses for satellite imagery are hardly limited to intel and defense. For the array of Space startups and aggressive tech companies, intel and defense are relatively mature markets – slow moving and difficult to crack if you’re not an established player. You ever tried selling to the government? It’s not easy.

So the big opportunity is finding ways to open up the information potential in geo-spatial data and satellite imagery to the commercial marketplace. Now I may not know HyperSpectral from IR but I do see a lot of the challenges that companies face both provisioning and using big data. So I guess I was their doom-and-gloom guy – in my usual role of explaining why everything always turns out to be harder than we expect when it comes to using or selling big data.

For me, though, attending Space 2.0 was more about learning that educating. I’ve never had an opportunity to really delve into this kind of data and hearing (and seeing) some of what is available is fascinating.

Let’s start with what’s available (and keep in mind you’re not hearing an expert view here – just a fanboy with a day’s exposure). Most commercial capture is visual (other bands are available and used primarily for environmental and weather related research). Reliance on visual spectrum has implications that are probably second-nature to folks in the industry but take some thought if you’re outside it. Once speaker described their industry as “outside” and “daytime” focused. It’s also very weather dependent. Europe, with its abundant cloudiness, is much more challenging than the much of the U.S. (though I suppose Portland and Seattle must be no picnic).

Images are either panchromatic (black and white), multi-spectral (like the RGB we’re used to but with an IR band as well and sometimes additional bands) or hyperspectral (lots of narrow bands on the spectrum). Perhaps even more important than color, though, is resolution. As you’d probably expect, black and white images tend to have the highest resolution – down to something like a 30-40cm square. Color and multi-band images might be more in the meter range but the newest generation take the resolution down to the 40-50cm range in full color. That’s pretty fine grained.

How fine-grained? Well, with a top-down 40cm square per pixel it’s not terribly useful for things like people. But here’s an example that one of the speakers gave in how they are using the data. They pick selected restaurant locations (Chipotle was the example) and count cars in the parking lot during the day. They then compare this data to previous periods to create estimates of how the location is doing. They can also compare competitor locations (e.g. Panera) to see if the trends are brand specific or consistent.

Now, if you’re Chipotle, this data isn’t all that interesting. There are easy ways to measure your business than trying to count cars in satellite images. But if you’re a Fund Manager looking to buy or sell Chipotle stock in advance of earnings reports, this type of intelligence is extremely valuable. You have hard-data on how a restaurant or store is performing before everyone else. That’s the type of data that traders live for.

Of course, that’s not the only way to get that information. You may have heard about the recent FourSquare prediction targeted to exactly the same problem. Foursquare was able to predict Chipotle’s sales decline almost to the percentage point. As one of the day’s panelist’s remarked, there are always other options and the key to market success is being cheaper, faster, easier, and more accurate than alternative mechanisms.

You can see how using Foursquare data for this kind of problem might be better than commercial satellite. You don’t have weather limitations, the data is easier to process, it covers walk-in and auto traffic, and it covers a 24hr time band. But you can also see plenty of situations where satellite imagery might have advantages too. After all, it’s easily available, relatively inexpensive, has no sampling bias, has deep historical data and is global in reach.

So how easy is satellite data to use?

I think the answer is a big “it depends”. This is, first of all, big data. Those multi and hyper band images at hi-res are really, really big. And while the providers have made it quite easy to find what you want and get it, it didn’t seem to me that they had done much to solve the real big data analytics problem.

I’ve described what I think the real big data problem is before (you can check out this video if you want a big data primer). Big data analytics is hard because it requires finding patterns in the data and our traditional analytics tools aren’t good at that. This need for pattern recognition is true in my particular field (digital analytics), but it’s even more obviously true when it comes to big data applications like facial recognition, image processing, and text analytics.

On the plus side, unlike digital analytics, the need for image (and linguistic) processing is well understood and relatively well-developed. There are a lot of tools and libraries you can use to make the job easier. It’s also a space where deep-learning has been consistently successful so that libraries from companies like Microsoft and Google are available that provide high-quality deep-learning tools – often tailor made for processing image data – for free.

It’s still not easy. What’s more, the way you process these images is highly likely to be dependent on your business application. Counting cars is different than understanding crop growth which is different than understanding storm damage. My guess is that market providers of this data are going to have to develop very industry-specific solutions if they want to make the data reasonably usable.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll have to provide full on applications. The critical enabler is providing the ability to extract the business-specific patterns in the data – things like identifying cars. In effect, solving the hard part of the pattern recognition problem so that end-users can focus on solving the business interpretation problem.

Being at Space 2.0 reminded me a lot of going to a big data conference. There’s a lot of technologies (some of them amazingly cool) in search of killer business applications. In this industry, particularly, the companies are incredibly sophisticated technically. And it’s not that there aren’t real applications. Intelligence, environment and agriculture are mature and profitable markets with extensive use of commercial satellite imagery. The golden goose, though, is opening up new opportunities in other areas. Do those opportunities exist? I’m sure they do. For most of us, though, we aren’t thinking satellite imagery to solve our problems. And if we do think satellite, we’re likely intimidated by difficulty of solving the big data problem inherent in getting value from the imagery for almost any new business application.

That’s why, as I described it to the audience there, I suspect that progress with the use and adoption of commercial satellite imagery will seem quite fast to those of us on the outside – but agonizingly slow to the people in the industry.

Big Data Forecasting

Forecasting is a foundational activity in analytics and is a fundamental part of everyone’s personal mental calculus. At the simplest level, we live and work constantly using the most basic forecasting assumption – that everything will stay the same. And even though people will throw around aphorisms of the “one constant is change” sort, the assumption that things will stay largely the same is far more often true. The keyword in that sentence, though, is “largely”. Because if things mostly do stay the same, they almost never stay exactly the same. Hence the art and science of forecasting lies in figuring out what will change.

Slide 1 ForecastingBigData
Click here for the 15 minute Video Presentation on Forecasting & Big Data

There are two macro approaches to forecasting: trending and modelling. With trending, we forecast future measurements by projecting trends of past measurements. And because so many trends have significant variation and cyclical behaviors (seasonal, time-of-day, business, geological), trending techniques often incorporate smoothing.

Though trending can often create very reliable forecasts, particularly when smoothed to reduce variation and cycles, there’s one thing it doesn’t do well – it doesn’t handle significant changes to the system dynamics.

When things change, trends can be broken (or accelerated). When you have significant change (or the likelihood of significant change) in a system, then modelling is often a better and more reliable technique for forecasting. Modelling a system is designed to capture an understanding of the true system dynamics.

Suppose our sales have declined for the past 14 months. In a trend, the expectation will be that sales will decline in the 15 month. But if we decide to cut our prices or dramatically increase our marketing budget, that trend may not continue. A model could capture the impact of price or marketing on sales and potentially generate a much better prediction when one of the key system drivers is changed.

This weekend, I added a third video to my series on big data – discussion of the changes to forecasting methodology when using big data.

[I’ve been working this year to build a legitimate YouTube channel on digital analytics. I love doing the videos (webinar’s really since they are just slide-shows with a voice-over), but they are a lot of work. I think they add something that’s different from either a blog or a Powerpoint and I’m definitely hoping to keep knocking them out. So far, I have three video series’ going: one on measuring the digital world, one on digital transformation in the enterprise, and one on big data.]

The new video is a redux of a couple recent speaking gigs – one on big data and predictive analytics and one on big data and forecasting. The video focuses more on the forecasting side of things and it explains how big data concepts impact forecasting – particularly from a modelling perspective.

Like each of my big data videos, it begins with a discussion of what big data is. If you’ve watched (or watch) either of the first two videos in the series (Big Data Beyond the Hype or Big Data and SQL), you don’t need to watch me reprise my definition of big data in the first half of Big Data and Forecasting. Just skip the first eight minutes. If you haven’t, I’d actually encourage you to check out one of those videos first as they provide a deeper dive into the definition of big data and why getting the right definition matters.

In the second half of the video, I walk through how “real” big data impacts forecasting and predictive problems. The video lays out three common big data forecasting scenarios: integrating textual data into prediction and forecasting systems, building forecasts at the individual level and then aggregating those predictions, and pattern-matching IoT and similar types of data sources as a prelude to analysis.

Each of these is interesting in its own right, though I think only the middle case truly adds anything to the discipline of forecasting. Text and IoT type analytics are genuine big data problems that involve significant pattern-matching and that challenge traditional IT and statistical paradigms. But neither really generate new forecasting techniques.

However, building forecasts from individual patterns is a fairly fundamental change in the way forecasts get built. Instead of applying smoothing techniques for building models against aggregated data, big data approaches use individual patterns to generate a forecast for each record (customer/account/etc.). These forecasts can then be added up (or treated probabilistically) to generate macro-forecasts or forecasting ranges.

If you’ve got an interest in big data and forecasting problems, give it a listen. The full video is about 16 minutes split into two pretty equal halves (big data definition, big data forecasting).